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From Flavor Flops to Data-Backed Product Hits
How AI Is Transforming Product Innovation in CPG
For decades, creating a new snack or beverage was equal parts art, science, and high-stakes guesswork. Consumer packaged goods (CPG) giants like PepsiCo, Nestlé, and General Mills invested heavily in R&D labs, ran countless taste panels, convened focus groups, and rolled out expensive test-market trials - all hoping to cook up the next big hit. Yet the annals of product history are littered with flavor flops that, despite all that effort, fell flat with consumers. Today, that trial-and-error approach is giving way to a more predictive, data-fueled strategy. AI and advanced analytics are helping brands crack the code on what consumers really want, turning costly misses into data-backed hits. In this deep dive, we'll explore where product innovation has been, how it's evolving with new tools like Gastrograph AI and NielsenIQ, and where it's headed next - with plenty of real-world examples (the good, the bad, and the funky) along the way.
Past Approaches - What Innovation Used to Look Like
Slow and Expensive R&D: Historically, developing a new flavor or product line in the CPG world could take well over a year from idea to shelf. Companies followed a linear "stage-gate" process: brainstorm dozens of concepts, whittle them down in the lab, conduct internal sensory panels (where trained tasters give feedback), run focus groups with target consumers, and if something showed promise, invest in small batch productions for a test market trial. Each step was time-consuming a single round of consumer focus group testing might stretch 3+ months and none guaranteed success. It wasn't unheard of for a brand to spend $50,000-$100,000 just to get a prototype formulation ready for testing, only to learn later that it missed the mark. And while big companies could afford a few flops as the cost of doing business, the odds were daunting: roughly 85% of new CPG products failed within two years. In short, innovation was a slow grind with high stakes.
Gut Feel and "Launch-and-Learn": Decision-making in those days relied heavily on human instinct and limited data. R&D chefs and food scientists would iterate recipes based on their expertise and the feedback of a few dozen tasters. Market research teams would survey shoppers or conduct small taste-tests in a couple of cities. If consumers in Columbus, Ohio (a popular test market) reacted well, the product might get a green light for national launch. But a good test run was no guarantee - many products that aced the focus group or regional trial later bombed when exposed to a broader audience with different tastes. Often, companies simply had to "launch and learn," i.e. release the product and see if it sells, accepting the risk of a flop. This approach led to some infamous misfires that have since become industry legend. Orbitz soft drink (1997) featured floating edible flavor beads suspended in a clear liquid, like a lava lamp you could drink. It fascinated onlookers but horrified taste buds an emblematic flop of the pre-Al era.
Notorious Flavor Flops of the Old School Approach: When companies guessed wrong about consumer taste, the results could be unintentionally memorable. A few highlights (or lowlights) include:
Orbitz (1997): A wildly innovative fruit drink with colorful gelatinous balls floating inside. It defied beverage physics (thanks to gellan gum magic) and looked super cool - Time Magazine even dubbed it one of the "worst beverage ideas" of the past quarter-century. Why? The texture was often described as "mucosal" (yep, like snot) and the flavor combos ("Pineapple Banana Cherry Coconut," anyone?) were equally bizarre. Consumers bought it once for the novelty and never again. Orbitz was discontinued within a year.
Crystal Pepsi (1992): Pepsi's attempt at a colorless cola rode the early '90s fad for "clear" products. It launched with massive fanfare (even a Super Bowl ad) and curiosity drove a brief spike in sales. But the taste a vague, citrusy sweet cola - confused consumers who expected the classic cola bite. It turns out people found a clear cola cool in theory but psychologically missed the familiar dark hue and flavor punch of a regular Pepsi. Crystal Pepsi's sales quickly fizzled to near-zero and it was pulled from shelves by 1994, never reaching the hoped-for market share.
Heinz EZ Squirt Ketchup (2000): Heinz's foray into kid-friendly ketchup in crazy colors actually started strong. They made ketchups in Blastin' Green, Funky Purple, and even Mystery Color (a surprise teal or orange) with a special nozzle so kids could draw on food. In the first 3 years, over 25 million bottles sold, giving Heinz a momentary 60% market share in ketchup. The catch? Parents and older consumers were totally grossed out by neon green french-fry goo. Once the novelty wore off for kids, repeat purchases plummeted. By 2006, the product was discontinued as a technicolor lesson that just because you can turn ketchup purple doesn't mean you should.
Lay's Cappuccino Chips (2014): Part of Frito-Lay's crowd-sourced "Do Us a Flavor" contest, this coffee-flavored potato chip was a social media darling that made it to a limited release. Snackers were intrigued then they actually tasted it. Reactions ranged from "abominable" to "a chemical attack on your mouth," as one contest review put it. The sweet cinnamon latte flavor on a salty chip was too weird for most palates. It generated buzz, yes, but virtually zero repeat sales. Lay's learned that a million contest votes for a flavor don't translate into millions of purchases if the product itself isn't craveable.
These failures weren't for lack of talent or effort - companies did use the best tools they had (focus groups, expert panels, small tests). The core problem was scale and speed: a few dozen tasters can't represent a nation of eaters, and traditional research couldn't fully capture sensory nuances across diverse consumer groups. By the time the verdict came (via dismal sales figures), it was too late millions had been sunk into R&D, manufacturing, and marketing. As one product developer wryly noted, "We only knew we had a flop after we'd shipped it." The old approach was reactive and costly, essentially educated guesswork. But that's starting to change.
Current Practices - How Brands Blend Human + Digital Feedback Today
In the past few years, CPG companies have gotten a lot savvier in how they develop and test new flavors. They've adopted a more agile approach that mixes traditional sensory testing with digital-era tools - all designed to get quicker, data-driven reads on consumer preferences before a full-scale launch. It's the era of rapid prototyping and feedback loops for food and drink. Here's what that looks like on the ground:
Limited Releases & Iteration: Instead of betting the farm on a new flavor nationwide, brands now often do limited-edition drops or regional trials to gauge real-world demand. The goal is to create a sense of exclusivity and get hardcore fans to give feedback, all while limiting risk. Coca-Cola has mastered this with its new Creations platform. For example, in 2022 they launched Coca-Cola Zero Sugar Byte a pixel-themed, "metaverse inspired" soda - only online and in very limited quantity. The U.S. release was sold exclusively via Coca-Cola's website (just 25,000 twin-packs), marketed heavily to gamers and Gen Z. It debuted in Latin America and through Fortnite before that, as a way to build hype. By keeping it DTC (direct-to-consumer), Coke gathered heaps of social media chatter and engagement data without flooding store shelves. Essentially it was a massive online taste test if Byte had bombed, only a few thousand people would have ever tried it. (Reports say it tasted like "artificial fruit turbocharged with sweetener... pleasant in a confusing way, but no one wanted more than a few sips" - which is exactly the kind of candid feedback such trials provide.) Coca-Cola has used similar limited runs for other funky flavors (Starlight, Dreamworld, etc.), treating them as both marketing events and learning experiments. As Coke's CEO James Quincey explained, it's about having "enough shots on goal" - lots of small bets, some of which might score big.
Other beverage makers follow suit. Monster Energy, for instance, doesn't roll out a new exotic flavor everywhere at once. They might introduce a niche flavor in just one region or through certain convenience chains first, using sales data to decide if it has broader appeal. If a flavor like "Ultra Watermelon" catches fire in the Southwest, they'll expand it; if it fizzles, it quietly disappears with minimal loss. Likewise, Starbucks often trials novel drinks (think olive oil coffee or a wild tea flavor) at a few stores or in their upscale Reserve Roasteries to gather early reactions before a wider release. The strategy across the board: test small, fail fast (if needed), and iterate.
Data-Driven Trend Hunting: Beyond physical tests, companies now lean heavily on digital consumer data to guide innovation. Social media, e-commerce, and food delivery apps have become a gigantic, unfiltered focus group. Brands are listening to what people post, like, and crave online. One vivid example - Oreo's Cotton Candy cookies. Oreo originally released a Cotton Candy flavor in 2015 as a limited run. It was a cult hit but then disappeared. Years later, thanks to persistent fan demand on Instagram, TikTok, and Reddit, Nabisco brought it back in 2023 for the first time in 8 years. The company literally teased the return by posting consumers' pleas on social media and then confirming the flavor's comeback. Why revive it now? Because social listening tools showed "Cotton Candy Oreo" was trending as a nostalgic favorite - digital chatter indicated it would be a hit among Gen Z and millennials who remembered it. Sure enough, the return generated major buzz and likely strong sales, all because data from the internet told Oreo what the focus groups of yesteryear could not.
Brands are also tapping specialized analytics platforms to predict what new flavors or ingredients might trend. Services like Tastewise, Spoonshot, and Trendalytics crunch data from restaurant menus, recipe sites, Google searches, and millions of social posts to spot emerging food interests. They can highlight, for example, that searches for "dragonfruit" have spiked 120% this year in the Midwest, or that guajillo chili is trending on upscale menus suggesting these could be ripe areas for innovation. One such tool, Spoonshot, uses AI to sift through 26,000+ data sources (from food science journals to Reddit threads) and identify unique flavor combinations that are gaining traction. This kind of trend intelligence helps CPG teams move earlier on ideas. Instead of playing catch-up to a fad, they can be first movers. For instance, if analysis shows that "spicy mango" flavor is blowing up on TikTok challenges and cocktail menus, a snack brand might develop a spicy mango tortilla chip in time to catch the wave, not miss it. Compare this to old-school methods where you'd rely on annual flavor reports or wait for sales data by the time those rolled in, the trend might be over.
Blending Human and Digital Feedback: Importantly, companies haven't thrown out the traditional methods - they've augmented them. Many still run sensory panels but do so in smarter ways. They might use smaller, quicker-turnaround panels whose results are immediately fed into statistical models. They also use online panels and surveys to get feedback from hundreds of consumers in days (versus recruiting 20 people in a facility next month). A lot of innovation teams now operate like agile tech teams: create a minimum viable product (MVP) version of a new drink (maybe a few liters of a test formula), get real consumer feedback via a quick online test or limited market release, analyze the data, pivot or refine the formula, and repeat. This rapid cycle can cut down the development timeline significantly some companies have shrunk time-to-market by 30-50% using these methods.
Data from retail scanners and loyalty programs is also a goldmine. NielsenIQ (NIQ), long the big player in retail sales tracking, helps brands slice and dice purchase data to see what flavors sell best in which regions, what trends are lasting vs. fleeting, and even which consumer demographics are driving those trends. For example, NIQ data might show that sriracha-flavored snacks are extremely popular in West Coast grocery stores (indicating a spicy taste preference there), while pumpkin spice products sell like crazy in New England in fall (no surprise). These insights guide companies on where to focus innovation and how to tailor marketing. As NIQ itself notes, their omnichannel data (from 90+ countries and 900K stores) lets brands track "velocity by SKU, region, and channel" and find white-space opportunities. In practice, a snack company could identify that no one is offering a taro-flavored chip but search and sales trends show taro desserts rising in Asian-American communities - a hint that a taro chip might delight a niche market. To sum up current best practices: test smarter and earlier, leverage data everywhere, and merge human intuition with machine insights. This hybrid approach has already yielded some wins (and at least prevented some disasters). But the real game-changer is what's coming next using AI to virtually simulate taste itself. Welcome to the future of flavor innovation.
Future of Product Innovation - Predictive Sensory Modeling & Simulation
Imagine if a food or beverage company could accurately predict whether you'll love or hate a new product before they ever produce a single bottle or bag. That's the promise of the latest AI-driven sensory modeling. Think of it as "ChatGPT for your tongue" - an AI that has been trained on how thousands of people perceive taste, and can simulate their reactions to any given flavor profile. Instead of formulating by trial-and-error and waiting for sales reports, companies can now run virtual taste tests through a computer, tweaking recipes in silico to maximize appeal. It's a radical shift: from guessing what consumers might like, to computationally predicting it.
At the forefront of this movement is technology like Gastrograph AI (recently acquired by NielsenIQ). Gastrograph is a predictive sensory intelligence platform built on the premise that flavor perception can be quantified and modeled. Here's how it works under the hood:
Massive Sensory Database: Gastrograph has amassed what it calls the world's largest database of human sensory reactions. Over years, trained panels and consumers globally have tasted all manner of products (beers, teas, chips, you name it) and recorded their experiences using a detailed flavor mapping system. The AI thus "learns" the nuanced flavor fingerprints of different foods and beverages, and how different demographics respond to them. It's not just thumbs-up/thumbs-down; it's a rich matrix of "I find it a bit too bitter, slightly herbal, and very creamy" and so on, across millions of data points.
Modeling Human Perception: Using machine learning, the system builds multi-dimensional flavor models. It essentially treats flavors like points in a huge 600+ dimension space (as one expert described, since flavor involves hundreds of subtle variables). The AI learns patterns - for example, that people who say a drink is "floral" might also use words like "elderberry" or "rose" and tend to either love or hate that depending on age. Crucially, Gastrograph can identify hidden drivers of liking. Humans often can't articulate everything they taste (we lack words or awareness for it), but the AI can infer that, say, a certain combination of aroma compounds equates to a "vanilla note" that boosts enjoyment. In essence, it can recognize "this product's flavor profile is similar to that other product that 20-somethings loved, except it's a tad more bitter and less creamy." These predictive insights are far beyond what a traditional focus group could ever give.
Demographic Preference Simulation: Here's the magic once the AI has a model for a product, you can ask it how different consumer segments will perceive it. "How will Gen Z consumers in Texas react to a chili-lime kombucha?" "What liking score would health-conscious 40-year-old women in Japan give this protein bar?" The AI can simulate those outcomes by leveraging what it knows about flavor preferences across demographics. It's like having millions of virtual tasters. In fact, a recent study showed that Gastrograph could predict the preferences of 10 different consumer demographics using only a small sample of proxy tasters. In that study, just 12 Japanese testers' data was enough for the AI to accurately predict how consumers in China would rate a set of beverages a task that normally would require running a full consumer test in each target market. The ability to translate taste across cultures and ages is a game-changer.
Optimization & White Space Analysis: The Al doesn't stop at prediction; it provides guidance. It can highlight which attributes of a flavor are polarizing or dragging down liking for a certain group. For example, it might reveal that a prototype energy drink is scoring poorly with women because it's "too bitter and not fruity enough" for their palate, suggesting the company adjust the sweetness or add a berry note. It can also scan the flavor landscape to find gaps say, noticing that no existing soda targets a specific flavor combination that a certain demographic would love. (Maybe it finds an untapped opportunity for a lychee-ginger cola aimed at Asian American millennials, who have high predicted liking for those flavor notes and low satisfaction with current mainstream sodas a white space in the market.)
The benefits of these AI sensory platforms are huge:
Fewer Flops, More Hits: By weeding out clunker concepts early, companies can avoid costly failures like those flavor flops we discussed. Why did Lay's Cappuccino chips flop? Because broad consumer segments found the taste off-putting. An AI model likely would have flagged that Gen X and Boomers would strongly dislike a sweet coffee chip (as we saw in reality) and advised reformulating to add a more savory balance or not launching it at all. Think of it this way: Crystal Pepsi would have been killed in simulation - the AI would have predicted that people associate "cola flavor" with certain cues that a clear soda didn't deliver, saving Pepsi the embarrassment. In short, AI can tell you "don't do that, it won't work" with far more authority than an anecdotal focus group.
Faster Time to Market: Traditional product development could take 1-2 years. Al can compress that drastically. With a tool like Gastrograph, a company could theoretically iterate a formula digitally in days. For instance, only 10-15 human tasters might be needed to feed the model enough data on a new concoction, after which the AI can simulate how thousands of consumers would respond. This eliminates having to organize multiple large-scale taste tests around the country. As NielsenIQ touted in its acquisition announcement, integrating Gastrograph's AI means clients can achieve "faster speed to market and lower costs" in product innovation. It's the difference between launching with confidence in 6 months versus launching with crossed fingers in 18 months.
Micro-Targeted Products: AI sensory modeling enables hyper-segmentation in a way that was never practical before. A brand can tailor a product to a niche demographic and be sure it will hit the spot. For example, consider a kombucha startup formulating a new flavor. Their core audience is health-conscious 20-somethings in Southern California. Using AI, they discover that this group prefers a certain tartness and moderate ginger spice level - so they tweak the brew precisely for that profile. Meanwhile, they can also simulate how a slightly different formula might be better suited for, say, 30-somethings in the Northeast who like kombucha but want it fruitier. One product could split into two regional variants optimized for each audience's palate. We're talking about flavor tuning on a granular level: more chili for Texas, less sweetness for Japan, extra creaminess for the UK, etc., all guided by predictive models. It's like A/B testing your product with virtual taste buds - "Flavor A vs Flavor B" - and rolling out the winner to each target group.
Fewer Physical Prototypes (Sustainability): Formulating food involves a lot of trial batches, ingredient sourcing, and often wasted product in testing. Being able to do much of that iteration virtually means less waste and a smaller environmental footprint. Companies can experiment with crazy ideas in the digital realm (e.g. 50 different herbal blend variations) without dumping tons of unused ingredients down the drain.
Let's bring this to life with a few use cases from the near future, enabled by AI sensory simulation:
A regional soda company wants to create a line of craft sodas for diverse taste preferences. They plug into an AI platform which suggests a lychee-ginger soda would score off the charts with Asian-American Gen Z consumers (filling a flavor gap in the market). It also predicts the exact level of ginger heat that segment finds "just right." The company develops that soda, and simultaneously, a different habanero-tamarind flavor that the AI shows would appeal to Hispanic millennials. Each is launched in the specific markets where demand is predicted to be strongest - with far more confidence than traditional market research could offer.
A protein chip startup is torn between two formulations: one maximizes crunch, the other has a richer savory coating. Using predictive modeling, they learn that Boomers prefer a lighter crunch (they associate extreme crunch with staleness or tooth concerns), whereas Gen Z snackers want all the crunch they can get. Likewise, flavor-wise the model shows Millennials value an umami "punch" more than Gen X does. The startup can then tune the texture and flavor intensity by age segment, perhaps launching a "super crunchy umami blast" version for the under-30 crowd, and a slightly softer, milder version for older consumers all simulated beforehand to align with each group's optimal enjoyment metrics.
An ice cream brand considers bringing a new globally-inspired flavor to market. The idea of a miso-chocolate ice cream is on the table adventurous, sweet-salty umami. Traditionally, this would be risky and hard to gauge. But AI simulation reveals a fascinating insight: young urban consumers (especially those who enjoy Asian cuisines) would love it and rate it very highly, whereas rural older consumers would likely be turned off. This tells the brand how to position and distribute the flavor - maybe it becomes an online-only or city-exclusive special rather than a Walmart staple. The AI even suggests adding a touch more cocoa, as that boosts liking among the target without alienating them with too much miso saltiness.
In short, the future is about designing products with predictive insight, almost like co-creating with an AI that represents the collective palate of your customers. It's the ultimate way to de-risk innovation. As one executive put it, "Gastrograph is to flavor what A/B testing is to web design" - you can iterate rapidly, based on data, to find what truly works.
It's worth noting that NielsenIQ's recent acquisition of Gastrograph Al underscores this future. NIQ is combining its vast behavioral data (what people buy, when, where) with Gastrograph's sensory data (why they buy, i.e. how products taste). This convergence means a CPG manufacturer could one day go into a single platform and see: If we make Product X with Flavor Profile Y, the model predicts 78% of Gen Z consumers will love it (based on sensory prediction), and we can also see that it has a projected $50M sales potential in year 1 (based on market data modeling). That kind of end-to-end prediction from formula to financial outcome - is something brand managers only dreamt of in the past. It's quickly becoming reality.
Of course, Al isn't a magic wand. It provides probabilities and suggestions, not guarantees. Human creativity and intuition still play a huge role in coming up with novel ideas and interpreting insights. But the balance is shifting upstream. As one industry observer noted, the smartest use of AI is to augment the creatives, not replace them to remove the guesswork so that making a new flavor is less of a gamble and more of an informed play.
Implications for Data & Innovation Teams
This Al-driven shift in product innovation has ripple effects on how companies organize their teams and make decisions. When data moves upstream to the product development phase, the very process of innovation changes - and so do the roles of the people involved. Here's what it means for teams:
Data Science Joins R&D at the Hip: In the old model, the R&D/product development folks did their thing, and the data/analytics folks came in later (to analyze sales or run market research). Now, those silos are breaking down. If you're using AI to simulate consumer preferences, you need data scientists, analysts, or AI specialists working hand-in-hand with product developers and food scientists. Companies are creating cross-functional "product pods" that include flavor chemists, marketers, and data analysts all in one group. A food scientist might say, "I'm considering these three new formulations," and the data analyst can run them through a model overnight and say, "Version B will likely perform best with our target segment by a significant margin." The result is a much tighter feedback loop between creativity and analytics. Organizations that embrace this essentially having R&D and insights teams co-own innovation will out-innovate those that stick to the old sequential, siloed approach. As evidence, NielsenIQ itself highlighted that their AI platform resonated strongly only when "data leaders were in the product room" meaning the companies that benefited most were those who involved their insights people from concept to launch, not just after the fact.
Innovation Moves from Art to Art+Science: There's a cultural implication here. Product development in CPG has historically been somewhat intuition-driven ("I have a hunch blueberry cayenne could be the next big thing"). Going forward, successful teams will foster a culture that still values gut feel and creative risk-taking, but validates it with data at every step. We can expect to see "digital twins" of products in development - virtual versions that are tested with AI models before physical testing. R&D teams will likely adopt new KPIs, like an "innovation success score" from predictive models, in addition to traditional metrics. They'll also need to get comfortable with AI tools: training R&D staff to use platforms like Gastrograph, interpret the results, and iterate accordingly. Companies might even hire specialized sensory data analysts people who act as translators between what the algorithms say and what the product developers should do.
Org Structure and Talent: How do you structure for this? Forward-thinking CPG firms are already establishing integrated innovation departments that merge market research, product dev, and data science. Some have "consumer insights labs" where data analysts and food technologists sit side by side. There's also a trend of bringing in talent from tech data engineers, UX researchers, etc. - into CPG roles. The profile of the "CPG product manager" is evolving to require comfort with data and AI tools in addition to traditional marketing savvy. In fact, a McKinsey report noted that the modern CPG product manager role now blends the orchestration of an agile tech scrum master with the insights of a data scientist and the consumer-centric mindset of a brand manager. In practical terms, that means training and upskilling are crucial. The orgs that invest in building these cross-functional skills (or hiring new blood who already has them) will be able to leverage AI innovation tools much more effectively.
Faster, Decentralized Decision-Making: When an AI can tell you in hours whether a product concept is promising, it empowers teams to make decisions faster without endless layers of executive gut checks. We may see companies cut down on the hierarchy and bureaucracy in innovation. Instead of six meetings to decide if a flavor proceeds to consumer test, a small empowered team can test it virtually, see a green light from the data, and move on to prototyping immediately. This agility is especially important as competition intensifies and as upstart brands (who often use these digital tools from the get-go) threaten the big players. As one article quipped, if your innovation team is only looped in post-launch, you're already too late. The new mantra: fail in simulation, not in market.
DTC and Bypassing Traditional Testing: For direct-to-consumer brands (which sell online without needing immediate retail presence), the whole concept of a "test market" is changing. Many DTC-first brands now launch new products on their website in limited runs to gauge interest (much like Coca-Cola Byte did). With AI, some might skip even that step using predictive models as their primary validation, confident enough to release nationwide on their DTC channels because the model said it will work. This is a bit like how software companies deploy features to all users after successful A/B tests with a subset; here the A/B test is done via simulation. The implication is that the barrier to launching niche products is lower - we'll likely see more niche flavors and products because companies can profitably target micro-segments online, guided by AI, without worrying about mass retail viability upfront. For example, a DTC snack startup might create 5 flavor variants each tailored to a specific palates (e.g. keto super-spicy, vegan mild, etc.), use Al to ensure each hits the mark for its niche, and sell them all profitably to the respective audiences found via targeted digital marketing. This flavor personalization at scale could be the next evolution of consumer-centric innovation.
Challenges and Responsibilities: With great power (of prediction) comes great responsibility. As AI takes a bigger role, teams must also guard against over-reliance or misinterpretation of data. Models are only as good as the data and assumptions behind them. There's a risk of false confidence - e.g., if the training data doesn't include a certain emerging consumer group, predictions might miss the mark. Hence, human oversight is key. Diversity in tasting data (which Gastrograph emphasizes having from dozens of countries) is important to avoid biases. Also, ethical questions arise: Will companies formulate only for what scores best and perhaps ignore minority tastes or innovate less on truly radical flavors? It's something teams will need to balance - using Al to make informed bets, not just safe bets. Ultimately, the infusion of AI into CPG innovation is making the process more precise and collaborative. The wall between "creative food people" and "numbers data people" is coming down. The winning products of tomorrow will come from teams that seamlessly blend sensory artistry with analytics. Or as one might put it: the next billion-dollar SKU won't just be dreamed up in a kitchen - it will be co-developed by chefs, data scientists, and Al models together. The era of flavor flops born from guesswork is fading. In its place is an age of data-backed hits - products designed with consumer delight in mind from day one, tested in worlds both real and virtual, and proven by prediction long before you ever take a first bite.
About the Author
Misagh Jebeli is an enterprise data architect and founder, exploring how AI and data-driven products are reshaping the CPG industry, from inventory and forecasting to brand strategy and product innovation. - Connect on LinkedIn
Sources:
NielsenIQ press release on acquiring Gastrograph AI https://nielseniq.com/global/en/news-center/2025/niq-signs-definitive-agreement-to-acquire-gastrograph-ai-further-enhancing-cpg-innovation-through-ai-driven-data-platforms-and-capabilities/
Just Food on CPG failure rates and AI accelerating R&D https://www.just-food.com/sponsored/how-ai-in-cpg-gets-products-to-market-faster/
FoodNavigator (Analytical Flavor Systems study) on traditional vs Al predictive testing https://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/News/Promotional-features/New-Study-Confirms-Predictive-Power-of-AI-for-Foods-Beverages/
Harvard Business Review on Lay's Do Us a Flavor contest outcomes https://d3.harvard.edu/platform-digit/submission/frito-lays-do-us-a-flavor-contest/
Business Insider on Heinz EZ Squirt's initial success and decline https://www.businessinsider.com/major-food-flops-2011-1
Entrepreneur on the Orbitz drink flop https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/5-epic-product-fails-and-the-lessons-they-can-teach-your/311119
Business Insider on Crystal Pepsi's performance and taste issues https://www.businessinsider.com/crystal-pepsi-creator-david-novak-its-failure-taught-important-lesson-2016-7
Polygon review of Coca-Cola Byte limited edition strategy https://consumergoods.com/coca-cola-goes-dtc-including-fortnite-pixel-flavored-zero-sugar-byte
Eat This, Not That on Oreo's Cotton Candy revival via fan demand https://www.eatthis.com/oreo-cotton-candy-flavor-may-2023/
Perfumer & Flavorist on Spoonshot's AI trend prediction capabilities https://www.perfumerflavorist.com/flavor/trends/news/21867367/spoonshot-launches-ai-food-trend-predictor
The Atlantic on how Gastrograph can simulate new demographic preferences https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/12/gastrograph-flavor-goes-digital/577270/
[AI x Flavor R&D] 1,000 Data Analysts in Your Pocket https://www.foodtalks.cn/en/news/54198
Your product development process needs a strategic integrator https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/modern-cpg-product-development-calls-for-a-new-kind-of-product-manager